Gas Supply and Demand Study

Indigenous gas production has fallen sharply in recent years, returning to levels not seen since the early 1980s. Major fields are maturing, with many approaching the end of their productive life. New supply remains uncertain, and several large industrial users are reassessing their long-term future in the market. These shifts are occurring against a backdrop of price volatility, tightening supply conditions, and increasing pressure to decarbonise.

Despite this market contraction, gas remains essential for electricity security of supply—particularly in dry years when hydro storage is low and reliable backup generation is needed to support system flexibility and new renewable capacity as the country progresses toward Net Zero 2050.

Our 2026 Gas Supply and Demand Study, prepared for the Gas Industry Co, explores how the market could respond under two credible pathways: continued reliance on declining indigenous gas supply; and indigenous gas supply supplemented by liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from 2028.

The study highlights the key choices, trade-offs, and timing risks that will shape the next phase of the energy transition, examining how different customer segments may respond, what the potential exit of Māui and Methanex could mean for market stability, and why flexibility will be central to maintaining system resilience.