Retail and consumer insights

Retail and Consumer Insights shares the latest trends in consumer behaviour in New Zealand and globally. We analyse data on electronic spending by industry in New Zealand to provide valuable insights. Our commentary also covers observations on changes in the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index, Stats NZ data, and other relevant local and global sources.

This edition provides a retrospective look at key trends and developments from February to July 2026.

Consumer confidence recovered significantly from its April low, reaching 99.3 in July. However, elevated inflation and higher borrowing costs mean improved sentiment has yet to translate into a sustained lift in underlying retail activity. While retail card spending was higher year on year, transaction activity remained comparatively subdued, with higher average transaction values contributing to growth.

Retail trend highlights

Discretionary spending shows signs of improvement

By July, spending across durables, hospitality and apparel was higher year on year, an improvement on the comparatively modest growth seen a year earlier. 

Higher spend, limited transaction growth

Across February to July, transaction volumes were only marginally higher than the comparable 2025 period, while average spend per transaction increased by around 2%. 

Retail performance remains mixed

Improving results from retailers including JB Hi-Fi, Harvey Norman and Woolworths sit alongside continued pressure from cost of living, changing consumer behaviour and competition across parts of the sector.

Deals highlights

Deal activity reflected continued portfolio reshaping and investment across the retail and consumer sector, spanning acquisitions, divestments, recapitalisations and property transactions. Activity was particularly evident across food and grocery, with transactions involving T&G Fresh, Mainland Poultry, Abe’s Bagels and Farro Fresh, alongside KMD’s balance sheet recapitalisation.