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From June 2025 to January 2026

Retail and consumer insights
An old man holding a tablet
  • Report
  • June 09, 2026

Exploring shifts in consumer sentiment, spending patterns and retail activity.

We take a look at the trends in consumer behaviour in New Zealand and globally, analysing data from the PwC Retail and Consumer Dashboard (focusing on electronic spending by industry in New Zealand). Our commentary also covers our observations on changes in the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index, Stats NZ, and other relevant local and global sources.

This publication provides retrospective analysis of key highlights, trends and news from July 2025 to January 2026, acknowledging subsequent information and events including ongoing geopolitical tensions will affect the analysis provided throughout.

At a glance

Favourable monetary conditions, including the reduction of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 2.25%, alongside a rebound in quarterly GDP, are gradually supporting confidence, which in turn may lift consumer activity; however, elevated cost-of-living pressures and a soft labour market continue to temper discretionary momentum.

107.2

Highest since August 2021

Consumer confidence
2.25

Lower rate backdrop

OCR
3.7%

Expected growth per annum over the next two years

House price expectations
5.4%

December 2025 quarter

Unemployment

Electronic card transaction value YOY:

  • -1.5% (12 months to January 2026 vs 12 months to January 2025)

Top retail spend growth:

  • Consumables (2.53%), Services (2.42%) 

Top retail spend decline:

  • Vehicles excl. fuel (-3.29%), Apparel (-2.9%) 

Scale and value delivers revenue growth:

  • Kmart: +2.3% JB HiFi: +32.6% Costco: +6.5% 

FY25/6 year-on-year revenue growth. However, declining discretionary spend in the middle market has a negative impact. EB Games (closure), Smiths City (liquidation), and Kitchen Things (receivership) highlight the sustained pressure across discretionary segments.

Structural reshaping continues across the sector, with transactions such as Fonterra’s consumer business sale, the Restaurant Brands takeover and AS Colour’s private equity investment, alongside IKEA’s market entry, reflecting continued portfolio realignment, and evolving competitive dynamics.

Retail and Consumer Insights

Update | June 2025 to January 2026

About the Author

Indy Sena
Indy Sena

Partner, Assurance, PwC New Zealand

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Phil Wheeler
Phil Wheeler

Partner, PwC New Zealand

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