Weekly market wrap up - 6 June 2025
This week’s JOLTS (Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey) report from the US painted a mixed picture of the labour market. Job openings rose by 191,000 in April to 7.39 million, signalling continued demand for workers. But the same period also saw layoffs surge by 196,000 (the biggest monthly increase since July 2023) as businesses adjusted to growing uncertainty, particularly around tariffs and trade policy. Digging a little deeper into the detail, the ratio of job openings to unemployed people held steady just above one-to-one, suggesting companies are still reluctant to part with staff. All up, it was a snapshot of a labour market in transition - still resilient, but increasingly cautious.
Attention now turns to a broader set of US employment data due tonight, including job creation numbers (Non-farm Payrolls), the unemployment rate, and wage growth - all of which will help shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next move.
AI is no longer just suggesting dinner recipes, outlining essays, or settling trivia disputes - it’s now moving into the newsroom. In a first-of-its-kind deal, Amazon has signed a licensing agreement with The New York Times to train its generative AI models using the publisher’s archive. That includes content from NYT Cooking and sports outlet The Athletic, further expanding the reach of AI across media. The deal means Alexa could soon be delivering daily headlines alongside weather updates, reinforcing just how quickly AI is embedding itself into everyday life.
It’s another sign that AI isn’t just a tool at the edge of our routines - it’s becoming part of the infrastructure behind them. Fittingly, AI helped shape this article too.
China’s export controls on rare earth magnets and critical minerals have taken effect, threatening to disrupt supply chains from Detroit to Düsseldorf. Automakers, already grappling with tariffs and trade tensions, warn that production delays could begin by the end of summer if supplies don’t resume. These materials are essential for electric vehicle motors, defence equipment, and other high-tech components. With export licences stalled and shipments stuck at Chinese ports, global manufacturers are scrambling for alternatives. While some of the US administration’s tariffs on Chinese goods have been scaled back, Beijing’s countermeasures may prove just as disruptive. In a sign of how quickly the landscape is shifting, the US announced today that progress has been made in negotiations with China - though no formal agreement has yet been confirmed.
For now, the next phase of the trade standoff may hinge less on tariffs and more on who controls the materials that power the modern economy.
Australia’s economy grew just 0.2% in the first quarter of 2025, edging the country back toward a per capita recession. The slowdown was driven by a sharp drop in public investment and the impact of Cyclone Alfred, which disrupted key sectors including mining and tourism. With households pulling back and retail sales falling despite holiday weekends, momentum remains soft. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is now under growing pressure to cut rates again in July, following two earlier moves this year.
Markets are increasingly pricing in more easing ahead of the RBA, hoping to revive growth and lift sentiment.
Authors: Zoe McCane, Sam Duncan, Duncan Roff and Ganan Jeyakumar
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