Weekly market wrap up - 8 August 2025
New Zealand’s labour market is continuing its gradual rebalancing. Unemployment edged up to 5.2% in Q2, with Auckland leading the rise at 6.1%. While the headline increase was below market expectations of 5.3%, the lift still confirmed the trend - the jobs market is loosening, steadily and deliberately. The uptick puts unemployment slightly above its long-run average. Participation has dipped, and underutilisation is nudging higher - early signs that the surge in labour demand post-COVID is settling down. Less a sign of distress, the increase marks a continuation of a return to more normal conditions. Employers are reporting fewer hiring pressures, and workers have more breathing room between roles.
After years of running hot, the labour market is cooling - but it’s a gentle easing, not a sudden stop.
The Bank of England cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%, the fifth such move in a year. Beneath the headline, the more interesting story was the razor-thin 5 - 4 vote and the unprecedented need for two rounds of decision-making. The Monetary Policy Committee’s deep division reflects the competing pressures the Bank is trying to manage - persistent inflation, a weakening labour market, and lacklustre growth. The split vote gave the pound a lift, with markets interpreting the hesitancy as a potential slowing of the easing cycle.
A rate cut divided the Bank, and it’s the economy’s contradictions, stubborn inflation and shaky jobs, that are making monetary policy feel more like a tug-of-war than a glide path.
China’s July export data shows how tariff policy is reshaping global trade flows. While total exports rose 7.2% year-on-year, shipments to the US plunged 21.7% - a sign that escalating trade tensions are biting. At the same time, exports to Southeast Asia jumped more than 16%, suggesting Chinese firms are rerouting or redirecting goods through ASEAN as a workaround to looming US tariffs. With Washington DC proposing fresh import levies, Chinese exporters are moving fast to stay ahead of the curve. The latest data shows not just a tactical response to short-term tariff risks, but a broader reconfiguration of supply chains across the region.
Still, even as trade flows adapt, China’s domestic challenges remain - weak household demand and ongoing property sector strains continue to weigh on the outlook.
OpenAI is back in the deal headlines, with reports it’s exploring a secondary share sale that could value the company at a staggering US$500 billion. The raise wouldn’t bring in fresh capital, instead, it would give staff and early backers a chance to cash out. It comes as ChatGPT's reach explodes - it’s now processing more than 3 billion messages a day. With revenue tipped to hit US$20 billion and 700 million weekly users on the platform, the hype has data behind it.
Wholesale investors are circling, but the bigger story is strategic: as OpenAI reshapes its structure and eyes an eventual IPO, it’s quietly cementing its spot as the world’s most valuable private tech company.
Authors: Zoe McCane, Duncan Roff and Ganan Jeyakumar
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