Will New Zealand lead or be left behind?

New Zealand's economic success has long been built on the abundance that surrounds us – dairy, forestry, agriculture, and natural resources. But what if New Zealand’s greatest economic advantage isn’t what we’ve always done well, but what we could do differently?

Today, three major megatrends are simultaneously reshaping the global economy and redefining the very nature of industries:

• Advanced technology and AI are creating opportunities to boost productivity and innovation across every sector, from precision agriculture to citizen-centric services. 

• Environmental impacts are fundamentally altering economic realities, creating new pressures on traditional business models while opening entirely new markets in sustainability and resilience. 
• Geopolitical instability is challenging established trade relationships and supply chains, forcing businesses to rethink their global strategies and value propositions.

These aren’t distant trends to monitor – they’re immediate forces requiring necessary response. New Zealand is in the front row, but are we in the race?

Our new research, Value in Motion, reveals that more than NZD$12 trillion (USD$7.1 trillion) is expected to be redistributed across the global economy in 2025 alone. This represents a complete transformation of the global industrial system – not just adopting new technology or environmental compliance, but fundamental industry change that will determine which companies and nations thrive over the next decade.

The numbers are stark: the research in our recent Global CEO Survey, shows the top 20% of organisations are likely to capture more than 80% of today’s profitable growth. If New Zealand is going to thrive on the world economic stage, we need to ensure that 100% of organisations are positioned to respond and compete.

In our March 2025 report on the sentiment of New Zealand CEOs, almost a quarter (24%) believe that if their companies continue on their current trajectory, they may not remain economically viable within the next decade. While 40% of CEOs said their company had begun competing in new sectors or industries in the last five years, that pace of transformation might not be fast enough.  

The convergence of these megatrends is demonstrated through the concept of ‘domains of growth’ – ways of organising economic activity around fundamental human needs rather than traditional industry boundaries. 

Value in Motion identifies six core domains:

Together with three enabling domains:

These domains represent an opportunity for organisations to reorient their business model and reevaluate the opportunities ahead of them to understand and harness the growth potential ahead.

A great example of value in motion is how Siemens applies AI for predictions in energy distribution networks to forecast demand surges, balance loads, and improve efficiency in smart grids. The same prediction modelling could be applied in a telecommunications context for network traffic optimisation, or in a retail context to forecast demand. 

The organisations that recognise this shift early and begin thinking in domain terms – rather than traditional industry categories – will be the ones positioned to capture the enormous value being redistributed across the global economy. 

These megatrends are already creating transformation opportunities across a number of New Zealand’s key sectors:

The impact of AI on primary or ‘how we feed’ industries

Precision agriculture technologies can address labour shortages, reduce waste, improve conversion efficiency, and enhance food quality assurance and biosecurity. With agriculture producing nearly half of New Zealand's total greenhouse gas emissions,² AI-driven wearable sensors and real-time health monitoring could help optimise livestock diets and herd management, significantly lowering methane per unit of production.

Energy transformation

While our electricity is already largely generated from renewable energy sources, around 60% of New Zealand's energy is still supplied by fossil fuels.³ The ‘how we fuel and power’ domain, projected to reach USD$6.1 trillion by 2035, presents major opportunities for renewable energy integration and grid intelligence.

Citizen-centric government services

The ‘how we govern and serve’ domain offers opportunities to reimagine citizen-centric services through AI-enabled digital platforms that prioritise frictionless, life-event-based interactions. The shift toward citizen-controlled digital identity solutions empowers individuals while maintaining privacy and security.

Healthcare reimagined

New Zealand’s aging population and our Māori and Pasifika-influenced approaches to holistic wellbeing position us uniquely in the ‘how we care’ domain – encompassing not just traditional healthcare, but the complete reimagining of how we approach wellness from AI-enabled health monitoring to community-based care models.

The Māori economy

Valued at NZD$126 billion in 2023,⁴ the Māori economy already embodies domain thinking. Underpinned by a holistic worldview that emphasises interconnections between nature and people, it provides a foundational framework for understanding economic relationships that transcend conventional boundaries.  

Capturing these domain opportunities will require rapid organisational evolution, involving mindset shifts, investment in tools, technology and people, and bold changes to operating approaches, including comprehensive business model reinvention 

New Zealand is well-placed to take advantage of these shifts, thanks to our adaptability and agility as a small, responsive economy. However, success will require a progressive government ready to adjust policy to foster growth, and CEOs and business leaders ready to embrace opportunities rather than defend existing positions. 

The challenge is scaling New Zealand’s advantages strategically, embracing AI-driven innovation across all domains of growth while pursuing decarbonisation goals and building the infrastructure and partnerships needed to capture the opportunities ahead.

The speed with which we respond to these megatrends will influence New Zealand’s level of success.  

At the heart of our research are three possible pathways for global economic expansion through to 2035, each defined by how rapidly and effectively AI is adopted alongside the speed of global decarbonisation initiatives. 

For the Asia-Pacific region specifically, the modelling reveals the gap between the best- and worst-case scenarios could be as much as 13 percentage points in regional GDP, demonstrating just how significantly these forces will influence economic futures.

The convergence of AI, climate imperatives, and geopolitical shifts represents more than an economic transition – it marks a defining moment for New Zealand's future prosperity. While we can’t predict exactly how these forces will reshape the global economy, businesses need to be prepared for multiple potential futures.

We need to be responsive and adaptive – the economic upside is vast, but so too is the risk of falling behind our larger neighbours and global competitors. 

As USD$7.1 trillion flows into new economic opportunities in 2025 alone, the countries and companies that position themselves strategically within these domains of growth are set to capture outsized value. The decade ahead belongs to nations that move quickly and decisively. 

So, what next for your business and industry? 

This is the first article in our PwC New Zealand Value in Motion thought leadership series. Future articles will explore specific domains of growth, practical implementation strategies, and policy implications for New Zealand’s economic transformation. 

If you’re ready to stress-test your organisation against these scenarios and explore domain-specific opportunities, we can help.